College Football DFS National Championship Showdown – Michigan vs. Washington – 1/8/24

Michigan -5 vs. Washington 56.5

What’s up everybody?  Monday night brings us our final college football game of the season and it should be a good one.  With no Monday Night Football, College Football will take center stage and with that DraftKings is running a monster CFB Showdown $600K Champ Bowl [$200K to 1st] (UW vs MICH) with a monster $200K to 1st!  With that let’s go by position group and talk about potential plays and strategies for tonight’s National Championship!

Quarterbacks

J.J. McCarthy $10,400 played mistake free football against the Tide and put up one of his better performances of the season in the Rose Bowl passing for 3 touchdowns and accumulating 23.34 DraftKings points.  This matchup from rostering the QBs in DFS reminds me a lot of last years game albeit Georgia were bigger favorites and we all know how that ended.  TCU had the QB in Max Duggan who drove their offensive success and UGA had Stetson Bennett who some argued was a product of the rest of the team.  I guess the point I’m making here is in this one game sample size McCarthy doesn’t look on paper as good as a play as Penix but also likely comes with an ownership discount.  If I’m playing one QB in lineups I’m going Penix as Michigan’s path to victory could be a formula of the run game and defense.

Michael Penix Jr. $11,000

With that said I think if you like Washington tonight they win because of the performance of Penix while I think Michigan can win in spite of McCarthy.  Penix is coming off a monster 430 yard performance through the air against the Texas secondary and should be counted on heavily again through the air Monday night as Michigan ranks 7th in the country in rushing yards allowed per game.  If you’re not going Corum captain in your lineups I think onslaught Penix captain lineups with 2 of 3 of the main pass catchers and one of the lower salaried guys is a solid strategy.

Running Backs

Blake Corum $10,600 is probably the safes play overall on the slate.  He’s topped 20 DraftKings points in Michigan’s last 6 games and on paper gets an easier matchup with Washington’s run defense than what he faced in the Rose Bowl where he found paydirt twice.  If you’re not playing Corum there is leverage in Donovan Edwards $5,400 but outside of trying to get different for tournaments Edwards has been disappointing overall on the season.

I think a lot of the field will follow what I’m outlining in this article in targeting the Washington pass game and Michigan run game as the script just writes itself.  So one way to somewhat flip the builds, (it is still showdown) to get more exposure to the Washington run game and pair that with Michigan pass catchers.  Enter Dillon Johnson $7,800 who has had some massive games this season and has recorded at least 21 carries in 5 of the last 6 games.  Johnson has some monster games this season and was a big part of Washington’s win against Texas in the semifinal.  Husky onslaughts with both Penix and Johnson could also be another way to build your lineups out in tournaments.

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

Washington has the big 3 in Rome Odunze $9,800, Ja’Lynn Polk $8,800, and Jalen McMillan $8,800.  All 3 have big game potential and have took turns this season putting up monster nights.  Outside of the main 3 guys I think there’s two under the radar salary savers who both had solid roles in the semifinal against Texas in Jack Westover $5,000 and Germie Bernard $2,200.  Giles Jackson has flashed this season as well and at $3,200 is likely to be the lowest owned of the 6 I outlined here with the games that Westover and Bernard had against Texas the box score watchers will gravitate there.

For the Michigan side things are far more simpler.  Their main 3 guys of Roman Wilson $9,000 Cornelius Johnson $3,800 and tight end Colston Loveland $6,400 all grade out from a median perspective behind the big 3 of the Washington offense.  When taking in the whole season stats McCarthy threw the ball 200 less times than Penix and totaled almost 200 less passing yards.  In a vacuum could that change?  Of course Washington could sell out for the run here and if they have success Michigan could put it in McCarthy’s hands.  With that said outside of the big three, backup running back Donovan Edwards $5,400 has caught the next most passes.  In terms of receiver flyers I would lean toward the lower priced Washington guys but if you are looking on the Michigan side Semaj Morgan $1,800 caught 4 passes against the ‘Tide and could be worth some dart throws here.

Kickers

If you’re looking to throw a Kicker in your lineup both of them have displayed solid legs this season with James Turner $4,600 of Michigan nailing 3 50+ yarders and Grady Gross $4,400 going 6/7 from 40+.  I expect Washington to struggle more to score touchdowns so I would lean Gross if I’m rostering a kicker.

Cheat Sheet

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