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DraftKings Picks + Cheat Sheet | DFS Analysis of UFC 299: Vera vs O’Malley (March 9, 2024)
What’s going on everybody? We’re back for another action packed UFC card highlighted by a monster $700K UFC 299 Special on DraftKings that sports a 200K to 1st prize structure and is just 25$ to enter.
Check out some of our top projected plays by salary range in our Cheat Sheet below followed by one favorite and one underdog to consider for your tournament lineups!
Cheat Sheet DraftKings + FanDuel
| $ Tier | F |
|---|---|
| High | Robelis Despaigne (9.3k / 76.98) (21 / 76.98) |
| Benoit Saint-Denis (8.9k / 67.12) (19 / 67.12) | |
| Medium | Jailton Almeida (8k / 58.37) (16 / 58.37) |
| Michael Page (7.7k / 53.66) (15 / 53.66) | |
| Low | Michal Oleksiejczuk (7.5k / 49.68) (13 / 49.68) |
| Marlon Vera (7k / 52.44) (14 / 52.44) | |
Favorite to Target
Robelis Despaigne DraftKings $9,300 | FanDuel $21
Despaigne is a bit of an unknown making his UFC debut here but what we do know is Josh Parisian looked terrible on the scales yesterday. I get the ultimate leverage argument that I’ve seen some make and taking minimal shots on him but I’m inclined to just lock Despaigne here and then worry about the other five lineup slots. Despaigne has a ridiculous 77% chance to end the fight in the first round and that’s just something I’m not comfortable getting away from.
His current ownership being level with Sean O’Malley is crazy in my opinion. I get the 5 round fight stat but I think that’s going to be a slower paced 5 round slugfest where O’Malley doesn’t accumulate a ridiculous number of significant strikes. I think it’s likely that Despaigne comes in north of 40% but I will happily be wrong if the cards are flipped and that’s not the case. Still, with the first round finish the more than likely outcome the hope is that he gets it done in the first minute and likely places himself in the optimal lineup.
Underdog to Target
Jailton Almeida DraftKings $8,000 | FanDuel $16
This is somewhat cheating here as Almeida isn’t an underdog anymore but he is priced like the on underdog fighter as the line has moved since the beginning of the week and I can absolutely see why. A quick look at Almeida’s fight logs will tell you everything you need to know as he has yet to score less than 104 DraftKings points in his six UFC fights. If he’s able to put up a triple digit performance here there’s little question he’s going to be optimal being priced as the 15th highest salaried fighter.
His opponent, Curtis Blaydes, has wrestling upside of his own so this could be the rare heavyweight fight where we see a good bit of wrestling. Despite Blaydes having those wrestling skills I think the advantage if the fight hits the mat will be with Almeida as he is a blackbelt and will seemingly have the upper hand. Blaydes might have more power overall with his strikes but I expect Almeida to be able to get Blaydes down and rack up the control time and ground strikes.
