DraftKings & FanDuel NASCAR DFS – Cup Series Championship – 11/5/23

Following an exciting season of NASCAR races, the Cup Series Championship race is upon us. In this article, I take a look at some strong core options and provide a cheat sheet to help you build strong lineups for Sunday’s race.

William Byron – $11,200 DK, $13,000 FD

Most fantasy players are likely to approach Sunday’s slate with a “studs and scrubs” lineup construction in an attempt to capture both win equity, which is narrow among the field, as well as dominator points, which FC projects to be relatively consolidated among a few high-salary drivers.

William Byron is priced on both daily fantasy sites as the third-most-expensive driver for tomorrow’s race. While I hesitate to call anyone at this end of the salary spectrum a “value” option, value for daily fantasy contexts refers simply to the difference between where a player is priced vs. where they ought to be priced based on certain criteria. Projections, which for this sport are namely a function of win odds and projected dominator points, indicate Byron is the best option on the slate and should be the highest priced driver even though he starts from the number one position.

Byron is projected to vastly outpace all other drivers tomorrow in combined laps led and fastest laps. While his number one starting position might convince some tournaments players to fade him to minimize risk, I think the risk will be worth it Sunday. Moreover, if players are dissuaded from playing him, that projection upside just becomes a greater factor in the potential leverage you may get from rostering him in a significant number of lineups.

Chase Briscoe – $7,500 DK, $8,500

Chase Briscoe has competed in 5 races at Phoenix Raceway and has finished in the top ten in 3 of those. This is partly why he has favorable odds to win Sunday’s race. These odds display significant favorability given that he is set to start the race from the back portion of the field in the 26th spot.

Outside of the top range of players, the upside from a dominator point perspective is relatively minor, but not non-existent. In fact, in the five aforementioned races at this track, Briscoe has averaged 22.4 laps led per race. However, optimizing for this upside is really risky and difficult to pinpoint; rather, focusing on place differential for value plays is better strategically for both cash games and GPPs, particularly if players are employing a studs and scrubs approach to their lineups overall.

Chase Briscoe is an excellent option in the lower-to-mid salary range with both a solid median outcome expected, as well as significant upside potential in all areas of NASCAR daily fantasy point scoring.

Cheat Sheet

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