NBA DFS Showdown: Thunder at Pelicans– DraftKings & Fanduel- 4/29/24

CPTN:

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (DK- $16,500, FD- $17,000)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is more than likely going to receive one of the highest ownerships in contests but still should be targeted heavily in contests and likely to provide strong value. Shai has been gradually improving his value in recent games (even with his price increasing each time) and is arguably one of the safest options to consider with one of the largest positional advantages. As of late the NOP defense have given up the most points on average when facing opposing point guards in the playoffs (30.49). That being said as OKC’s highest usage player Shai would be the most optimal to build around (and/or considered as a one-off) as they look to close the series tonight. The biggest risk here if anything would be Shai’s playing time gradually decreasing each game (39, 35, and 37 minutes in his last three starts) but that more than likely should remain on the higher end in this potential close out game.

Brandon Ingram (DK- $14,100, FD- $13,000)

Brandon Ingram is slightly trailing Shai in scoring overall this playoff (84 to 85 points total) and has the best chance of providing somewhat close to similar production in lineups as Shai at a cheaper price. That being said Ingram hasn’t been as efficient (42.5% versus 50.8% field goal rating) but should still be paired with Shai in lineups if not built around mainly in NOP stacks. Fortunately, Ingram’s price tag has either been unchanged (DraftKings) or lowered (FanDuel) with the OKC defense turning the ball over 4.10 times on average against the shooting guard position (most among teams this playoff). Therefore, Ingram’s price tags on both sites should be taken advantage of in lineups and with both him and Shai having decent scoring gaps between themselves, and their teammates Ingram is likely to try and contribute heavily to his team’s scoring to prevent getting eliminated.

UTIL/FLEX:

Herbert Jones (DK- $7,000, FD- $9,500)

The production among the NOP forwards have been fairly limited but Herbert Jones’ consistency makes him worth targeting as a secondary option in NOP exposures. To the benefit of those that select Jones in lineups his minutes have been gradually increasing (33, 36, and 38 these past three games) and may continue to remain on that end with Zion Williamson still being out and freeing up minutes for the NOP forwards. However, there is some risk with his teammate Trey Murphy III potentially affecting his usage due to getting more minutes on average, but Murphy’s scoring has been way streakier along with Herbert’s shooting being slightly more efficient (45% versus 43.3% from the field) making Murphy the more viable option in lineups.

Chet Holmgren (DK- $8,800, FD- $14,500)

Although Chet Holmgren’s usage has dropped by nearly half (29.1 to 15.1 rates) compared to his game before last now may be a good opportunity to target in him lineups with NOP giving up the 2^nd most points on average against centers compared to other positions. Also, more opportunities may occur for Holmgren to score in contests due to both teams giving up turnovers on the higher end of the league (NOP giving up 3.53 on average). On the other hand, this could deplete Holmgren’s value slightly as well especially with OKC turning over the ball more against the position between the two teams. Holmgren has been increasing his block rate lately as well though (2, and 4 in his last two starts) which could sneakily complement his scoring even further in lineups and be one of the main factors towards NOP’s turnovers against his position.